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SCOTUS Set to Take Up Abortion Fight   11/28 08:37

   Both sides are telling the Supreme Court there's no middle ground in 
Wednesday's showdown over abortion. The justices can either reaffirm the 
constitutional right to an abortion or wipe it away altogether.

   WASHINGTON (AP) -- Both sides are telling the Supreme Court there's no 
middle ground in Wednesday's showdown over abortion. The justices can either 
reaffirm the constitutional right to an abortion or wipe it away altogether.

   Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 ruling that declared a nationwide right to 
abortion, is facing its most serious challenge in 30 years in front of a court 
with a 6-3 conservative majority that has been remade by three appointees of 
President Donald Trump.

   "There are no half measures here," said Sherif Girgis, a Notre Dame law 
professor who once served as a law clerk for Justice Samuel Alito.

   A ruling that overturned Roe and the 1992 case of Planned Parenthood v. 
Casey would lead to outright bans or severe restrictions on abortion in 26 
states, according to the Guttmacher Institute, a research organization that 
supports abortion rights.

   The case being argued Wednesday comes from Mississippi, where a 2018 law 
would ban abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, well before viability. The 
Supreme Court has never allowed states to ban abortion before the point at 
roughly 24 weeks when a fetus can survive outside the womb.

   The justices are separately weighing disputes over Texas' much earlier 
abortion ban, at roughly six weeks, though those cases turn on the unique 
structure of the law and how it can be challenged in court, not the abortion 
right. Still, abortion rights advocates were troubled by the court's 5-4 vote 
in September to allow the Texas law, which relies on citizen lawsuits to 
enforce it, to take effect in the first place.

   "This is the most worried I've ever been," said Shannon Brewer, who runs the 
only abortion clinic in Mississippi, the Jackson Women's Health Organization.

   The clinic offers abortions up to 16 weeks of pregnancy and about 10% of 
abortions it performs take place after the 15th week, Brewer said.

   She also noted that since the Texas law took effect, the clinic has seen a 
substantial increase in patients, operating five days or six days a week 
instead of two or three.

   Lower courts blocked the Mississippi law, as they have other abortion bans 
that employ traditional enforcement methods by state and local officials.

   The Supreme Court had never before even agreed to hear a case over a 
pre-viability abortion ban. But after Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death last 
year and her replacement by Justice Amy Coney Barrett, the third of Trump's 
appointees, the court said it would take up the case.

   Trump had pledged to appoint "pro-life justices" and predicted they would 
lead the way in overturning the abortion rulings. Only one justice, Clarence 
Thomas, has publicly called for Roe to be overruled.

   The court could uphold the Mississippi law without explicitly overruling Roe 
and Casey, an outcome that would satisfy neither side.

   Abortion-rights advocates say that result would amount to the same thing as 
an outright ruling overturning the earlier cases because it would erase the 
rationale undergirding nearly a half-century of Supreme Court law.

   "A decision upholding this ban is tantamount to overruling Roe. The ban 
prohibits abortion around two months before viability," said Julie Rikelman, 
who will argue the case for the clinic.

   On the other side, abortion opponents argue that the court essentially 
invented abortion law in Roe and Casey, and shouldn't repeat that mistake in 
this case.

   If the justices uphold Mississippi's law, they'll have to explain why, said 
Thomas Jipping, a Heritage Foundation legal fellow. They can either overrule 
the two big cases, Jipping said, "or they're going to have to come up with 
another made-up rule."

   Conservative commentator Ed Whelan said such an outcome would be a "massive 
defeat" on par with the Casey decision in 1992, in which a court with eight 
justices appointed by Republican presidents unexpectedly reaffirmed Roe.

   This court appears far more conservative than the one that decided Casey, 
and legal historian Mary Ziegler at Florida State University's law school, said 
the court probably would "overrule Roe or set us on a path to doing so."

   Chief Justice John Roberts might find the more incremental approach 
appealing if he can persuade a majority of the court to go along. Since Roberts 
became chief justice in 2005, the court has moved in smaller steps on some 
issues, even when it appeared there was only a binary choice.

   It took two cases for the court to rip out the heart of the federal Voting 
Rights Act that curbed potentially discriminatory voting laws in states with a 
history of discrimination.

   In the area of organized labor, the court moved through a series of cases 
that chipped away at public sector unions' power.

   The high court also heard two rounds of arguments over restrictions on 
independent spending in the political arena before removing limits on how much 
money corporations and unions can pour into election advocacy.

   If the court looks to public sentiment, it would find poll after poll that 
shows support for preserving Roe, though some surveys also find backing for 
greater restrictions on abortion.

   Mississippi is one of 12 states ready to act almost immediately if Roe is 
overturned. Those states have enacted so-called abortion trigger laws that 
would take effect and ban all or nearly all abortions.

   Women in those states wanting abortions could face drives of hundreds of 
miles to reach the nearest clinic or they might obtain abortion pills by mail. 
Medication abortions now account for 40% of abortions.

   Some legal briefs in the case make clear that the end of Roe is not the 
ultimate goal of abortion opponents.

   The could should recognize that "unborn children are persons" under the 
Constitution's 14th Amendment, a conclusion that would compel an end to almost 
all legal abortions, Princeton professor Robert George and scholar John Finnis 
wrote. Finnis was Justice Neil Gorsuch's adviser on his Oxford dissertation, an 
argument against assisted suicide.

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